#2022 midterm predictions full#

“I think it's going to be more likely to be mentioned in this cycle, but it's still not going to be the top issue in most races.” “But when you actually ask voters, what are the top issues that they voted on and so forth, abortion is seldom mentioned,” he continued. It's a sort of flag that people use to say what side of the partisan divide they're on, and politicians wave that flag quite a bit.” “Abortion is really important for its sort of symbolic value to many voters.

“There's decades of research on the abortion issue that shows that it is seldom the sort of major issue that people use when they actually go to the polls,” Munson added. “And so in that case, it will make Democrats more competitive in some races, but I don't think that the overall complexion of the election is likely to change.” “I do think that the conventional wisdom is right that this will serve to help the Democratic Party mobilize some of its voters and get people out to the polls at a time when they might not otherwise,” Ziad Munson, a sociologist at Lehigh University and author of “Abortion Politics,” said in an interview Spectrum News. The survey said that 51% of voters would back a candidate that would vote to codify the protections previously established in Roe, including 47% of independents, compared to just 36% who responded they would definitively vote against a candidate who took such a stance.īoth polls suggest that a majority of Americans oppose the Supreme Court’s ruling - the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey showed 56% opposed to the ruling, and 59% in the CBS News/YouGov poll disapproving of the high court overturning Roe.Īmong women, that figure is even higher: Fifty-nine percent in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll oppose the court overturning Roe, and 67% in the CBS News/YouGov poll.ĭespite this, one expert told Spectrum News that he does not think the decision will “substantially change the contours of the midterm election.” 'Men are +12 points and women are +18 points more likely to support congressional candidates who pledge to codify the protections of Roe v. 'With the midterm elections less than five months away, the decision by SCOTUS has sent shockwaves through the electorate,' Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, wrote in an analysis of the survey results. The poll also gives Democrats a 48-41 advantage in which party they want to see control Congress, compared to 47-44 in favor of Republicans in April of this year.

#2022 midterm predictions full#

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey found that 56% of Americans are concerned that the court could revisit and potentially overturn the rights to contraception, same-sex marriage or same-sex relationshipsĪccording to a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday, 50% of Democrats said that they are more likely to vote in the midterm elections as a result of the Supreme Court overturning Roe, compared to just 20% of Republicans.Ī survey from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist suggests that among registered voters, 78% of Democrats said the Supreme Court’s ruling makes them more likely to vote in November, a full 24 points higher than Republicans (54%).

Both polls suggest that a majority of Americans oppose the Supreme Court’s ruling, and among women, that figure is even higher.A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday, 50% of Democrats said that they are more likely to vote in the midterm elections as a result of the Supreme Court overturning Roe, compared to just 20% of Republicans A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey suggests that among registered voters, 78% of Democrats said the Supreme Court’s ruling makes them more likely to vote in November.Wade suggests that Democrats are more motivated to vote than their Republican counterparts in November’s midterm elections A pair of polls released in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v.